Depression, Recession

The March employment numbers, out this morning, are bleak: 8.5 percent of Americans officially unemployed, 663,000 more jobs lost. But if you include people who are out of work and have given up trying to find a job, the real unemployment rate is 9 percent. And if you include people working part time who’d rather be working full time, it’s now up to 15.6 percent. One in every six workers in America is now either unemployed or underemployed.

Every lost job has a multiplier effect throughout the economy. For every person who no longer has a job and can’t find another, or is trying to enter the job market and can’t find one, there are at least three job holders who become more anxious that they may lose their job. Almost every American right now is within two degrees of separation of someone who is out of work. This broader anxiety expresses itself as less willingness to spend money on anything other than necessities. And this reluctance to spend further contracts the economy, leading to more job losses.

It’s a Depression, Robert Reich, Friday, April 03, 2009,

It’s hard to get a handle on what the economy is doing. I work in a sector–proprietary education– that is tailor-made for economic troubles, so I don’t have that feeling that things are going downhill. I am used to hearing about the travails of the working class, too, either from my family or from my students. So I can’t say that I have been hearing more of that sort of thing, either.

I don’t mean in any way to question his integrity, but Reich is a mainstream, liberal economist, and so has something like a vested interest in promoting the largest stimulus package possible. It’s not surprising that he favors the term depression. And, of course, the unemployment numbers are probably the best measure, as he suggests, of how poorly we are doing.

On the other hand, Doug Henwood, who is a very careful observer of the numbers, has a nuanced, if still bad, notion of the state what he calls “that abstraction The Economy.” He sees some signs of hope, although he seems to have little patience with the idea that the recovery is coming sooner rather than later; the stimulus money is not yet spent, after all.

What is a depression? According to Kimberly Amadeo on About.com we have a long way to go before we get to Great Depression levels: “unemployment was 25% and wages… fell 42%. …U.S. economic output fell from $103 to $55 billion and world trade plummeted 65%.” We are not there yet, but I don’t think the worst is over yet.

Photography as Pedagogy

The Extreme Ice Survey is the most wide-ranging glacier study ever conducted using ground-based, real-time photography. EIS uses time-lapse photography, conventional photography, and video to document the rapid changes now occuring on the Earth’s glacial ice. The EIS team has installed 27 time-lapse cameras at 15 sites in Greenland, Iceland, Alaska, and the Rocky Mountains. EIS supplements this ongoing record with annual repeat photography in Iceland, the Alps, and Bolivia.

What is the Extreme Ice Survey?

In the early 1960s the ‘big blue marble’ photos of Earth from space completely changed our view of our planet and its ecosystem. The “our” is meant to be as inclusive as possible because it was the image itself– translated everywhere into media as varied as films and t-shirts– that made the point. Our modern environmental consciousness began with that image.

It was a wonderfully effective, didactic image: we are all one world, we are a small corner of a very big universe. Since then, there have been an entire range of other images that might be said to be equally potent, or at least to reinforce the point. I’ve always loved the images of the Earth from the moon, and the deep space images from the Hubble Telescope are breathtaking.

The Extreme Ice images are more difficult, and too complex for easy translations, but I think they will play an equally important role in the maturation of human environmental awareness. They are complex because they are both utterly beautiful and, at the same time, a damning, even shocking indictment of myopia. This is the first clear vision we have of our future.

Wishful Thinking

The Millennium Villages project offers a bold, innovative model for helping rural African communities lift themselves out of extreme poverty. The Millennium Villages are proving that by fighting poverty at the village level through community-led development, rural Africa can achieve the Millennium Development Goals—global targets for reducing extreme poverty and hunger by half and improving education, health, gender equality and environmental sustainability—by 2015, and escape the extreme poverty that traps hundreds of millions of people throughout the continent.

With the help of new advances in science and technology, project personnel work with villages to create and facilitate sustainable, community-led action plans that are tailored to the villages’ specific needs and designed to achieve the the Millennium Development Goals.

About the Villages

Positive thinking can be a bad thing if it blinds you to criticism and ongoing problems. Pessimism, though, can be just as bad if it prevents you from seeing potential and the possibility of change. So when someone, person or organization, makes large claims it’s important to try to find some balance between skepticism and wishful thinking.

That’s why it can be so difficult to think though the idea that poverty could be eliminated in the same way that certain diseases have been eliminated over the last century. A century ago, of course, we did not know enough about the origins of diseases to really understand how we might prevent them. And, of course, we have only eliminated a few.

In fact, the very techniques we developed to fight diseases caused their own problems; bacterial resistance to antibiotics, for example. And new diseases have arisen, such as the AIDS pandemic, that may not be resolved, much less controlled, for decades or more. So when we say we can eliminate poverty we have to be cautious about what we mean.

Still, projects like the Millennium Villages illustrate that there is a lot of common sense yet to be applied to the problem of eliminating hunger and poverty. We save an enormous amount of energy– in every sense– if we buy food aide regionally rather than shipping it from the United States. African farmers are willing and able to grow their own crops.

Similarly, it makes sense to apply some sort of systemic thinking to poverty. That means considerations of sustainability and scale, as well as a focus on agriculture, education, health, and infrastructure. This is not your father’s Care Package, dropped by parachute when famine strikes. I think there is every reason to be hopeful about this new model.